Last week we collected and analyzed information and projections about current regional situation regarding recent floods. Special emphasis was given to the possibility of national representative surveys in the near future in Bosnia & Herzegovina, Serbia and Croatia and our projections so far refer to period until the end of July 2014.
We have collected relevant field information on municipal level in each country and tagged municipalities that have been affected by the situation. Our analysis of collected information from the field and public population data has shown, that in all three countries nationally representative data collection is possible even if data collection in some municipalities won’t be fully accessible in next two months.
Situation in Croatia
In Croatia the situation is almost back to normal since only some municipalities have been flooded, meaning that in total less than 1% of Croatian inhabitants have by affected by recent floods.
Hence, nationally representative sampling is fully feasible in Croatia and only minor sampling adjustment are required in 3 mentioned affected counties and out of those in particularly in Vukovarsko-srijemska county that has been the most affected (both in terms of population and infrastructure).
Situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Although media coverage on this subject is weakening, it is important to emphasize that life in affected areas hasn’t stabilized yet. In some municipalities, damage is still possible and people are trying to rebuild their homes and provide basic living supplies, while still being in a state of shock. In some towns, public institution buildings, hospitals, shops, telecommunications are slowly recovering as well, though there is no exact forecast on the development in this subject. Some of the regional roads are still closed, but main roads and highways are open.
People who live in non-affected areas are still trying to help those in needs, but their interest is slowly decreasing. Humanitarian organization are still involved in help.
Hence, according to our projections, about 20% of B&H population won’t be accessible for data collection in next two months due to more sever impact of floods.
● Federation of B&H:
○ only Posavina Canton, representing 1,1% of total B&H population, is heavily
affected and data collection there is not recommended (feasible) soon. The
surveys will alternatively be conducted in neighboring Tuzla Canton which
was also affected, though not as severely.
○ Municipality of Maglaj in Zenica-Doboj Canton is in total collapse, but it’s
possible to find replacing municipality within same Canton.
○ The rest of Federation has no problems for representative sampling.
● Republic of Srpska
○ Floods caused more damage there and the Doboj region is severely
affected (55% of the region is in collapse). However, due to population
density, data collection will be possible in unaffected areas.
○ Bijelina and Zvornik region are affected though replacing municipalities
from the same region are available.
● District Brčko is in total collapse.
Situation in Serbia
Situation in Serbia is almost back to normal and the “elementary disaster situation” is still enforced only in the most affected areas /settlements. In some of those affected areas normal life is expected to be established within days, while in others full recovery might be completed in the next two months.
However, since replacement municipalities are available even in affected regions, nationally representative sampling is feasible in Serbia.
More information:
Dženis Midžić
Valicon d.o.o.
Branilaca Sarajeva 20, Sarajevo
T. +387 62 339 731
F. +387 33 258 656
E. [email protected]
